How likely is "US-Iran military conflict escalates through summer 2025"?

Our causal model estimates 16% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Visible MAGA coalition fracture over interventionism"?

Our causal model estimates 70% probability for this factor. This is driven by 4 sub-factors.

How likely is "Economic pain: gas above $4 and rising farm costs materialize"?

Our causal model estimates 51% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "GOP midterm advantage is consumed: House control in play"?

Our causal model estimates 18% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

← Back to Theses

Will Iran War Split MAGA and Flip 2026 House Control?

Updated 17m ago· Published Mar 24active

Current Assessment

Our causal model estimates 7% probability. Kalshi markets price the top related contract (Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?: April 30) at 6¢, while our thesis implies 65¢ — a +59¢ edge. Across 57 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.

Latest evaluation (13h ago): No material change — the Bloomberg 'MAGA Is Split' coverage confirms the existing fracture narrative already priced into the causal tree, while Trump's 'unconditional surrender' declaration modestly reduces ceasefire probability. Thesis confidence nudges from 0.06 to 0.07. The orderbook signal on th

Thesis

MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. If war continues through summer with gas above $4 and farm costs rising, GOP midterm advantage consumed by its own war. House and Senate control in play.

Confidence

7% █░░░░░░░░░

Implied Return

+7.4%

Contracts

62tracked

Track Record

Hit Rate

55%of edges moved toward thesis

Edges Tracked

Avg Movement

+2.0¢

Confidence Over Time

Mar 24Mar 31

Implied Returns

Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 5 on Apr 1, 2026?72¢→10¢+221.4%

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: 190-19414¢→31.5¢+125%

Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?11¢→17.5¢+59.1%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Joe Kent0.65¢→1¢+53.8%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: April 3018.5¢→26.5¢+43.2%

Will exactly 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?12¢→16.5¢+37.5%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Thomas Massie1.55¢→2¢+29%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: May 1553.5¢→41.5¢+25.8%

Causal Model

Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.

n1US-Iran military conflict escalates through summer 202516%██░░░░░░░░

n1.1US conducts sustained air campaign or ground operations against Iran21%██░░░░░░░░

n1.2Iran retaliates in ways that force continued US engagement15%██░░░░░░░░

n1.3No ceasefire or diplomatic off-ramp is reached before September 202537%████░░░░░░

n2Visible MAGA coalition fracture over interventionism70%███████░░░

n2.1Joe Kent resigns or publicly breaks with Trump over Iran policy95%██████████

n2.2Multiple MAGA-aligned House members vote against war authorization or funding31%███░░░░░░░

n2.3Right-wing media splits (e.g., Tucker Carlson vs. hawkish outlets)90%█████████░

n2.4MAGA primary challengers emerge on anti-war platforms for 20265%█░░░░░░░░░

n3Economic pain: gas above $4 and rising farm costs materialize51%█████░░░░░

n3.1National average gas price exceeds $4/gallon by summer 202557%██████░░░░

n3.2Farm input costs rise significantly due to conflict98%██████████

n3.3Voters attribute economic pain to the war and to the GOP52%█████░░░░░

n4GOP midterm advantage is consumed: House control in play18%██░░░░░░░░

n4.1Generic congressional ballot shifts to D+3 or better by mid-202633%███░░░░░░░

n4.2GOP incumbents in swing districts face depressed turnout from base fracture18%██░░░░░░░░

n4.3Democrats win House majority in November 20265%█░░░░░░░░░

n5Senate control comes into play for Democrats in 20264%░░░░░░░░░░

n5.1At least 2-3 GOP-held Senate seats become competitive due to war backlash11%█░░░░░░░░░

n5.2MAGA primary fights produce weak GOP Senate nominees20%██░░░░░░░░

n5.3Democrats win Senate majority in November 20268%█░░░░░░░░░

n6Conditional chain holds: war causes split causes economic pain causes electoral reversal0%░░░░░░░░░░

n6.1The MAGA split is primarily driven by the Iran war rather than other issues30%███░░░░░░░

n6.2Economic pain is primarily war-driven rather than from other macro factors58%██████░░░░

Market Edge Analysis

Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.

	Contract	Market	Model	Edge	Spread	Depth (Bid/Ask)
P	Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?: April 30YES	6¢	65¢	+59¢	6¢	614/2K
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	14¢	55¢	+42¢	7¢	67/309
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30NO	65¢	25¢	+40¢	1¢	5K/8K
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: December 31NO	79¢	40¢	+39¢	2¢	18K/49K
K	Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?NO	38¢	3¢	+35¢	3¢	642/861
K	Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?NO	50¢	15¢	+35¢	1¢	1K/821
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	18¢	50¢	+33¢	7¢	4K/34
P	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?YES	15¢	45¢	+31¢	1¢	2K/708
K	Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 5 on Apr 1, 2026?NO	10¢	40¢	-30¢	4¢	2K/1K
K	Will average gas prices be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	32¢	60¢	+29¢	19¢	83/696
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: May 15NO	42¢	15¢	+27¢	1¢	13K/2K
P	US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?NO	51¢	25¢	+26¢	2¢	841/159
P	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?NO	41¢	15¢	+26¢	1¢	91/5K
P	Which party will win the House in 2026?: Republican PartyYES	16¢	40¢	+25¢	1¢	22K/57K
P	What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: US x Iran CeasefireNO	49¢	25¢	+24¢	3¢	677/1K

Settled Contracts

5 contracts resolved.

	Contract	Result	Model Said	Verdict
P	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?	NO	YES @ 15¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Rand Paul	NO	YES @ 6¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Tulsi Gabbard	NO	YES @ 6¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Joe Kent	NO	YES @ 4¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Josh Hawley	NO	YES @ 4¢	✗ wrong

Recent Evaluations

Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.

Mar 31 02:007%(+1%)

No material change — the Bloomberg 'MAGA Is Split' coverage confirms the existing fracture narrative already priced into the causal tree, while Trump's 'unconditional surrender' declaration modestly r

Mar 30 16:007%(-3%)

No material change — the only event is a minor +5¢ price move on the Reza Pahlavi Iran visit market, which is tangential to the core thesis. More importantly, orderbook microstructure on the Pahlavi m

Mar 29 15:317%(-2%)

The single most important development is polling evidence that MAGA voters broadly support the Iran war, directly undermining the thesis's core assumption of a visible anti-interventionist fracture wi

Mar 28 10:166%(+2%)

The single most important development is the NYT confirmation of an active large-scale US military campaign against Iran as of March 2026, with Congress explicitly split over war powers — this materia

Mar 27 17:168%(-7%)

KILL CONDITION TRIGGERED: Israel-Iran ceasefire has been confirmed, with US White House announcing cheapest summer gas prices in four years at ~$3.20/gallon. This directly breaks the thesis's two core

Mar 26 19:0014%(+5%)

The single most important development is confirmation that gas prices have reached ~$4/gallon and farm costs are rising due to the Iran war by early 2026, with Democrats already framing this against t

Mar 25 02:1610%(+2%)

The single most important development is confirmation that US strikes on Iran occurred (June 2025) AND that $4 gas in some regions is explicitly being attributed to the Iran war — two key thesis nodes

Mar 24 07:1618%(-14%)

KILL CONDITION TRIGGERED: An Israel-Iran ceasefire has been reached, gas prices are falling toward $3 or below (expert forecast sub-$3 by September), and polling shows MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly

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