Public Thesis Dashboard
10 active thesis · 455 edges · Monitored 24/7
Updates every 15 min
10 active455 edgesKalshi + PolymarketHeartbeat every 15 min
57%
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department,
25 edges+8.6%10m
5%
MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I
62 edges+6.6%10m
5%
Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st
37 edges-3.3%10m
73%
US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed
17 edges+28.6%10m
84%
US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste
20 edges-2.7%10m
50%
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
15 edges-3.1%10m
6%
Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or
34 edges+13.3%10m
21%
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
83 edges-7.9%10m
51%
The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militarily, but because the c
65 edges-2.2%10m
5%
Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each
97 edges+13.5%1d
Recent Signals
—21%No material change this cycle. All events are minor market price moves tagged as10m
—6%The dominant development is aggressive market repricing on WTI and gas price con10m
—84%No material change. The only event is a minor +3¢ heartbeat price move on the BT10m
—5%No material change. The only events are minor gas price market moves (+3-5¢) and10m
—51%No material change. The single event is a minor price move on the Hormuz ship-tr10m
—5%The single most important development is Trump's U-turn on Russian oil sanctions25m
Top Edges
K100¢+85¢Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls
K97¢+72¢Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls
P26¢+69¢Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor
P10¢+66¢US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 15
P26¢+64¢Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor
P28¢+64¢US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 30
P6¢+60¢Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?: April 30
P65¢+55¢Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30
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