Week 2, 2026 – Prediction Markets Weekly Recap
Key highlights
Week 2, 2026 | Prediction Markets Weekly Recap
Market Overview
Trading activity remained robust in Week 2, with total volume concentrated in a few headline political and macroeconomic markets. The stability in the 'Trump out this year?' market at 50% suggests traders see balanced risks regarding the former president's political or legal status. Meanwhile, low probabilities on Powell leaving (1%) and a 2025 recession (2%) point to a perceived stable macro and institutional backdrop. Sports futures, particularly around the Pro Football Championship, attracted significant speculative capital, rivaling major policy markets.
Top Movers
| Market | Venue | Change | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out this year? | kalshi | 0.0% | 50.0% |
Volume Leaders
- Trump out this year? (kalshi): $9.76M
- How high will Bitcoin get this year? (kalshi): $9.66M
- Powell leaves before 2026? (kalshi): $6.42M
Key Highlights
- 📈 Markets stabilize on key political risks, with 'Trump out this year?' holding at a neutral 50% probability. Major monetary policy bets see low probabilities for immediate change.
- 💹 Bitcoin forecast markets see heavy speculative volume with low probability (1%) on high-price buckets, indicating strong interest but tempered expectations for a 2026 surge.
- 💹 Recession risk for 2025 priced at only 2%, reflecting continued economic confidence. Fed cut expectations for 2025 remain muted.
Desk Breakdown
Elections ⚪
Markets are in a holding pattern on major 2026 political risks, with high volume but stable prices on Trump-related questions.
Macro & Rates 🟢
Low recession probability (2%) and stable Fed leadership pricing (1% for Powell exit) reflect strong confidence in the economic trajectory and policy continuity.
Policy & Tech ⚪
Focus on departmental elimination bets (Education at 1%) and crypto regulation, with Bitcoin price speculation dominating volume.
Geopolitics ⚪
Ongoing conflicts (Ukraine-Russia, Venezuela) see active but lower-volume trading compared to domestic political and macro events.
Looking Ahead
Key events to watch next week:
- 2026-01-15: Federal Reserve speech by Chair Powell
- 2026-01-20: Deadline for congressional budget resolution