Week 7, 2026 Prediction Markets Recap: Warsh Fed Nomination Dominates as Economic Confidence Holds
Key highlights
Week 7, 2026 | Prediction Markets Weekly Recap
Market Overview
The week of February 9-16, 2026, saw a surge in prediction market activity, with total volume in the top 10 markets alone exceeding $85 million. A single political appointment question—the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair—captured nearly a third of this activity, underscoring its perceived market importance. Broader themes revealed a market confident in economic stability (very low recession and rate cut odds) and focused on long-duration crypto and geopolitical narratives, as seen in the active 2025/2026 event series.
Top Movers
| Market | Venue | Change | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair? | Kalshi | +2.0% | 94.0% |
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump? | Kalshi | 5.0% | 26.0% |
| Will the New England win the 2026 Pro Football Championship? | Kalshi | +7.0% | 33.0% |
Volume Leaders
- Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair? (Kalshi): $27.90M
- Will the New England win the 2026 Pro Football Championship? (Kalshi): $21.13M
- Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair? (Kalshi): $9.41M
Key Highlights
- 📈 The question of Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair dominated trading, attracting a massive $27.9M in volume. The market solidified at a 94% YES probability, indicating near-certainty of this outcome among traders.
- 💹 NFL futures saw surprising liquidity, with over $21M wagered on the New England Patriots winning the 2026 championship. The market currently prices this at a 33% probability, reflecting moderate confidence.
- ✅ No markets were resolved this week. However, the high conviction in several key markets (e.g., Warsh nomination, low recession odds) suggests traders are acting on strong fundamental narratives.
Desk Breakdown
Macro & Rates Desk 🟢
Overwhelming consensus forming on Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair nominee, with heavy volume suggesting high conviction. Rate cut expectations for 2025/2026 and recession odds remain heavily subdued, reflecting market confidence in the economic outlook.
Elections Desk ⚪
Significant market attention on a key Trump-era legal question, with the Supreme Court ruling in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump seen as unlikely (26% YES). This aligns with active events tracking the 2028 Election and the 2026 Trump Administration.
Policy & Tech Desk ⚪
Extreme skepticism towards major structural policy changes (Department of Education elimination at 1% YES). Tech focus remains sharply on crypto, with high-volume markets on Bitcoin milestones showing low near-term probability, indicating a patient or skeptical market view.
Looking Ahead
Key events to watch next week:
- Week of 2026-02-16: Official announcement of Fed Chair nominee expected; any deviation from Kevin Warsh would trigger massive market volatility.
- Coming Weeks: Continued monitoring of Bitcoin price action relative to the low-probability milestones set in active markets ($150k, yearly high).
- Ongoing: Geopolitical developments could drive increased volume and price movement in the active Geopolitics Desk events, which were quieter this week.