Blog
Prediction market analysis, strategies, and research. 11 articles.
Orderbooks Are Fossilized Beliefs
Every resting limit order on a prediction market is a belief someone held strongly enough to lock up capital. The orderbook is not just a price discovery mechanism — it's a geological record of conviction, frozen at the prices where people decided to take a stand.
Three Data Sources That Tell You What the World Thinks, What the World Is Doing, and What the World Is Feeling
Prediction markets are belief. Traditional markets are action. Social media is sentiment. Each alone is incomplete. Together, they form the most complete real-time picture of the world available to any agent.
The Most Important Number in a Prediction Market Isn't the Price — It's the Delta
A price tells you what the market believes. A delta tells you that the market just changed its mind. One is a snapshot. The other is the signal.
How to Read the World Through Prediction Market Prices
A practical guide to translating prediction market prices into world state. What prices mean, what price changes mean, and how to build a real-time world model from market data.
News Tells You What Happened. Prediction Markets Tell You What's Happening.
Headlines are past tense. Prices are present tense. If your agent reads news to understand the world, it's always one step behind.
Prediction Markets Are the Best Real-Time Sensor for World Events
Prices move before headlines. If you want to know what is happening in the world right now, prediction market prices are faster, more honest, and more calibrated than any other public signal.
Abelian and Non-Abelian Groups: Stackable Risk vs Non-Stackable Risk
When the order of events changes the outcome, every model that assumes otherwise is lying to you.
Group Actions and Orbits: Why the Same Event Has Different Value for Different Traders
The mathematics of symmetry explains why two rational traders can look at the same headline and reach opposite conclusions — and why both can be right about different things.
Congruence Classes and Signal: Modular Arithmetic as Attention Compression
The most powerful operation in number theory is also the most violent: division with remainder. What you throw away defines what you can see.
Why Your AI Agent Needs a Thesis, Not Just Data
Most AI trading agents make money for a week, then blow up. The problem isn't the model — it's the architecture. Here's why structured reasoning beats raw data every time.
How Causal Tree Decomposition Beats Vibes-Based Trading
You read the headline, formed a view, bought YES at 55 cents, and watched it bleed to 30. Here is why that keeps happening — and the structural fix that turns gut-feel gambling into systematic edge.