Blog
Prediction market analysis, strategies, and research. 7 articles.
Fed Rate Cuts 2026: What $200M in Prediction Market Volume Is Telling Us
The Fed funds rate hasn't moved in over two years. Prediction markets are processing this stasis with more nuance than any dot plot — and the contracts are telling a story that rates strategists should pay attention to.
Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: What Inflation Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In
Prediction markets are already trading the Fed’s 2026 path on rates, inflation, and unemployment. This deep dive connects those odds to the Fed’s SEP, historical cutting cycles, QT endgame, and global central bank moves—so macro investors can trade the 2026 regime, not the headlines.
Petrodollar System in 2026: BRICS Oil Trading, Yuan, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Dollar oil pricing is under its biggest challenge since the 1970s—but most experts still see erosion, not collapse. This deep-dive links the history of the petrodollar, BRICS de-dollarization moves, and yuan-based oil trade to concrete prediction markets on the future of dollar dominance.
Energy Security 2026: Oil, Gas Geopolitics and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
How Europe’s break from Russian energy, the coming LNG wave, Middle East risks, US shale, China’s strategy, and the renewables transition are shaping 2026 oil and gas—and where prediction markets see mispriced geopolitical risk.
Global Oil Prices 2026: OPEC, Venezuela, Iran & Prediction Markets in Focus
What 2026 prediction markets are really pricing for Brent, and how OPEC+ policy, Venezuela’s comeback, Iran’s sanctions dance, U.S. shale discipline, and China’s slowing demand will decide where oil trades.
Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In
Venezuela’s oil output, U.S. sanctions on PDVSA, and Chevron’s shifting license regime are at the center of several high-stakes prediction markets. This deep dive links the legal timeline, field-level constraints, and geopolitical deals with China and Russia to the 2026 outlook — and shows where market odds may be wrong.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets say there’s only a 1% chance of a US recession in 2025. Classic indicators and institutional forecasts say the odds are much higher. This deep dive unpacks the disconnect—and how macro investors should trade it.